Recently, China's stock market wave cloud deceitful cunning: Following a number of economists in China jointly sing the air after the Chinese stock market has always been adhering to the development of market economy and the financial liberalization of the market concept and belief in the past, China's stock market City, After profits and massive ship, more recently, uncharacteristically full debut, wantonly bearish on the stock market in China and urged the government actions to intense pressure on the stock market, resulting in access to the huge Chinese market one most likely to gain the adults, can make them into ghosts. If the Chinese government to listen to the international investment bank this induction, really powerful shot on the stock market intervention, then at large when, casting a big mistake, it will lead China's stock market and its investment were once again exposed to undue risk of loss and the international investment bank will once again earn pours. China's stock market is on the investors risk education.
In fact, in the Chinese stock market, especially in the bull market the process, the biggest risk precisely from the policy uncertainty, instability and unpredictable. sights on the international investment bank is the biggest weakness of Chinese stock market, which was willing to go against their own values and to induce market philosophy China's stock market fell below 3000 points, ? the hands of the government and management of what is really market belief, I have always believed that the Government will not, not, not the stock market do not have to impose heavy-handed, self-defeating way to terminate the historic development of China's stock market a rare opportunity; I do not think that the Chinese economy and China's stock market the process of development of the market to today's backdrop, the Government and the management really has to let the market run by the subjective will of the market means. But even so, I still on the stock market may experience a variety of bad to do a comprehensive research and Systems thinking, sort out the top ten Chinese stock market may experience negative.
bad first encounter is likely to continue to raise deposit reserve ratio. to raise the deposit reserve ratio is used to lock the main part of the funds of commercial banks. If Market liquidity shortage in the state, then raise the deposit reserve ratio will cause compression on the stock market; but in particular serious excess liquidity surplus, raising the deposit reserve ratio will be minimal effect on the stock market. also It should be noted that the adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio is on the line, the on-line is generally about 15% higher in the operations of commercial banks will be hurt. Therefore,UGG boots, the deposit reserve ratio as a major macroeconomic tools, although available but must be used with caution. if we are to regulate the stock market to raise the deposit reserve ratio, it is equal to white with, would not play any substantive role.
may encounter bad the second is to continue to interest rates. to raise interest rates on the most important role in the socio-economic operation has two aspects: First, increase the cost of capital throughout the community, the second is the theory of price-earnings ratio lower level of the whole society, from this point of view, plus interest on the Stock Market significantly inhibited. However, the Chinese yuan to appreciate at this stage is in the process, the most direct result of the hike of international hot money on a larger scale and speed continue to flow into China, leading to further increase the pressure of RMB appreciation , thus creating a vicious cycle, before and after the recent interest rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar spikes, is proof. hike constraints there are two aspects: First, the RMB and U.S. dollar interest rate differential is too large monetary policy reduces the use of space; Second, because of the real economy can not be compromised by changes in interest rates, or interest rates will have an enormous negative effects. the reality of China's biggest and most difficult issue is the interest rate is too low *** with the dilemma of RMB appreciation, interest rates greater appreciation of the yuan inevitable, which in turn will promote the full appreciation of China's asset prices, leading to greater stock market rise. Therefore, the development of economic reality in China, background, expected to raise interest rates to regulate the stock market, it is poles apart.
third possible irregularities encountered bad is the inventory of funds. If the policy to control the stock market, is certainly one side to increase supply, reduce demand side, which is likely to use the past to suppress the stock market when the inventory of illegal funds the usual way to use. This is the biggest characteristic of a bull market, a bank savings to the massive movement of the stock market in China is entering the era of capital, bank deposits guaranteed not only preserve the value of savings to investment in order to share the wealth effect of the whole country of development, this process will inevitably continue. legitimate funds are subject compliance operation is the mainstream, reasonably be expected to be led this round of China's stock market bull market in the most healthy and most normal. China needs most today is not looking for the fog cover the eye , so that the power of reason into the mainstream, to take a more active market policy, publicity operation of the positive factors in the stock market, and resolve the negative factors in the stock market, a virtuous cycle in the stock market go higher,Bailey UGG boots, faster, stronger stage of development.
may experience negative fourth is to increase the stamp duty. In my opinion, to improve the use of stamp duty in the probability of the current policy of the largest option. raise the stamp duty will increase transaction costs, but insisted the long-term value investment philosophy investors have little impact. a substantial increase in stamp duty this year, doubling times, if also choose to increase the stamp duty, which is short-sighted move, in addition to increasing revenue functions, can not see any other benefits.
s five may experience negative is the establishment of foreign exchange to expand QDII investment management company and the size. As foreign investment management companies only to financial institutions to raise capital and could not raise the whole society, and thus the establishment of foreign investment management companies will stock market although some impact, but the effect is not too much nor too long. As for the QDII, this model results in the end, how will the market, remains to be seen with the test. It should also be seen that the foreign investment management company and the QDII The largest and most likely Hong Kong stock market investment options is H shares, A shares and H shares because there is a clear linkage effects, H shares rose to lead A shares could not rally.
sixth may encounter is the reduction of bad outstanding shares of the biggest heavyweights are still far from being limited to the lifting of the ban period, coupled with the SASAC, the State Council on the state-owned shares and the controlling shareholding ratio, there are strict regulations, so through the reduction of target balance actually very difficult to achieve at this stage.
seventh may experience negative is the introduction of stock index futures. technical preparations for stock index futures is far from complete, a hasty introduction of more harm than good. As the stock market in a mature stock index futures led the declines are often led; in immature market, stock index futures are often fueled the help down as fundamentals in the Chinese stock market a comprehensive background to the good, the expected launch of stock index futures on the Chinese stock market can be run produce changes in direction, it is too naive.
eighth may experience negative is to accelerate market expansion and promotion of H shares and red chips in the market reversion. In my opinion,UGGs, speed up the expansion and shrinking market demand and as much as possible the gap between market supply to market supply and demand as much as possible to ease the conflict, all options may be the most useful management options, long-term development of the market is the most favorable option. But even expansion, it must be fully guaranteed under the premise of market quality, not the management issued a statement, article or comment. In this way, had already been used twice, bitterly hated by the market, or even practical effects of follow the international rules and international practices, the market structure has been to international investors and the market has undergone major changes in the direction of the Chinese stock market has begun to affect the context of the entire world, there is a strong sense of responsibility and sense of mission and the management of government not and should not be using such a clumsy way with such an old fashioned means to control the stock market and then weighed on the market.
may experience negative tenth the capital interest tax is levied. If the capital interest tax levy, it will be China's stock market caused an unprecedented deadly attack will be in the short term the stock market crash, the market will be one place or even chicken feathers everywhere Ai Hong, Andy Xie, who expect be achieved. Although this fight will be rapid and is huge,UGG boots clearance, but in the fall, the new army of hunters will open the floodgates to more intense market will appear more violent revenge mentality rebound, then, China's stock market will be completely out of order and out of control, not only is that investors will lose even worse defeat will be the government and the market. Taiwan's stock market capital gains tax of more than 10,000 point of the stock market fell from more than 3,000 points, and finally had to cancel that warning. In my opinion, the conditions of a capital gains tax simply do not have absolutely can not impose, by force if bent to impose, it means that China's stock market policy has started to turn negative from positive, and this will give China's stock market as a whole China disaster. So far, a positive factor in China's stock market has only just begun with the positive factors in the fermentation, the process of the bull market is far from completed, and in this case, the government and management should have enough patience, enough confidence and sufficient reason and toughness, such as flood control in 1998 when it was management decision-making between the Government and the best option or even all of the options is the only correct option, the market and investors looking forward to the process of China's stock market bull market can continue the process rather than a real interruption.
In my opinion, if these ten aspects of the negative cash, though all more or less, explicitly or implicitly on the process of an impact on the stock market bull market, but the change is but also the rhythm and the process of bull run , and can not change the direction and trend of the bull market. The market really, the biggest negative in fact derived from the market itself, when the market is really mm up too far, and fall time will come; at this moment did not come before the bull market The process will not contain the way to proceed. is the so-called cried The layer shall use its best efforts to maintain fair and equitable, maintain the market's rationality and prosperity. In this regard, it is imperative to do the work of two aspects: First, the international investment banks do first empty space after the singing and the practice of playing side by side must have a clear understanding of the main force can not let these super distortion index and the index or even serious distortion of the situation must be corrected as soon as possible, priority is to abolish the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Index and the Consolidated earnings ratio, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and its corresponding statistics of China's stock market price-earnings ratio as the subject of a blue sky and then to the market give investors a fair, a fair to society.
my articles: The stock market will rise up?
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